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 2015 Early Market Update

This is the time of year for forecasts and market predictions.  What will 2015 bring?  Will the market improve?  What kind of year can we expect?

We are hearing cautious optimism of a solid to strong year in real estate.  Our very early numbers are consistent with this prediction, with Sales orders from December 1st through January 15th up 28% over the same time last year!

Interest rates continue to influence the market, again nearing historic lows.  Mortgages traditionally follow the movement of the bond market. On Friday, the 10-year Bond Yield dipped to 1.76%.  To put this in perspective, Bond rates have only dipped lower for a short time in 2012, when Mortgage rates hit their all time low (just under 3.5%).

bondsvmortgages

Indeed, local Mortgage Rates dropped from 3.8% at the beginning of the year to today’s 3.6%.  It is conceivable they could go lower. This is good news for home affordability (and a good thing for buyers to know when considering houses), but signals weakness in the economy and markets.  Despite the weak stock market, NAR, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Banker’s Association all predict robust growth in housing sales in 2015 and an even better 2016!

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Thank you to my friend Joe Long at Waterstone Mortgage for this graphic and information. It is significant and unusual that all three predictions match so closely.  Interest rates will likely rise by year end, and this could dampen the market.  Nevertheless, interest rates may not be as important as consumer confidence, especially confidence about Jobs.  If people feel secure in their jobs and confident in their ability keep employed, they buy houses. The national jobs numbers have been strong, with 2014 having the best rate of job creation since 1999.

All of this should translate into a solid 2015. And, so far, our numbers are consistent with this hopeful prediction.  Happy New Year and we hope you have a healthy and prosperous 2015!

Homestead Title Company

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