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Posts Tagged ‘QE’

Mortgage Rates Shot Up This Week

Mortgage rates shot up this week and many are wondering why and what’s next. Homestead Title is going wonky today and dabbling in the guessing game of mortgage rates.

Bonds and Mortgage Rates

Mortgage Rates tend to follow long term bonds and, specifically, the 10 year Treasury Bond market. As bond yields increase, mortgage rates go up. And, sure enough, bond yields rose this week. But, most economists believe there is a much stronger force at play that has kept interest rates low. It is called the Fed and its program of Quantitative Easing.

Quantitative Easing Explained

The Federal Reserve has ways of influencing the economy. Its primary tool is to lower the interest rate charged to banks for inter-bank lending. By lowering the cost of money they hope Banks will borrow more, lend more freely, and spur economic growth.

Over the past 4 years, the Fed lowered rates to nearly zero, yet banks still weren’t lending enough and the economy wasn’t growing fast enough. In fact, banks were borrowing this cheap money and using it to buy safe bonds that paid a small return. Unable to lower the cost of money, the Fed sought to influence the quantity of money (hence the term Quantitative Easing). They pumped cash into the economy by buying up the same bonds and safe investments that banks were buying. This lowered the yields on bonds and indirectly lowered mortgage rates.

And sure enough, people borrowed. This spring has seen a surge in the real estate market and low interest rates have surely played a role.

Why Did Rates Rise Suddenly This Week?

When the Fed talks, the markets listen. On May 22, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested that the Fed might slow down or stop Quantitative Easing sooner than expected. The markets and banks reacted strongly (some would say they overreacted) and mortgage rates spiked.

What Will Happen Next

We’re a Title Company, not fortune tellers. If we could accurately predict the economy, we’d be on a beach in the Caribbean. But we can report what other’s are saying. Many economists think this is still a volatile market and rates will drop back down. It is hard to imagine rates dropping back to the historic lows of the last year, but we never imagined that was possible in the first place. Rates are still well below 4%, which is a screaming deal by comparison to rates over the last 50 years.

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