Time to Refinance?

Is it time to refinance your mortgage?  Probably!

The rate on a 30-Year Mortgage has steadily dropped from already low rates. Although rates can vary by region and lender, the national average has dropped from  nearly 4.5% to under 3.5% over the last 6 months.

The drop in mortgage rates corresponds with a recent drop in the 10-Year Treasury Bond.  The market for these bonds does not directly effect mortgage rates, but it is good indicator of their direction.  In fact, movement of the 10-Year Treasury Bonds almost exactly mirrors movement of 30-Year Mortgage rates over the past 5 years:

As of February 24, 2020, the yield on the 10-Year Treasury bonds were near record lows.

Does this suggest record low mortgage rates?

Yes!  The current mortgage rates are already near record lows.

Will mortgages rates drop further (don’t they drop when the bonds drop)?

Not Necessarily.  Mortgage rates are not directly effected by bond rates — there are many factors that determine mortgage rates.  And, a drop in bond rates may reflect market conditions that are already “baked in” to current mortgage rates.

The recent precipitous drop in bonds may be largely a reaction to the coronavirus, and fears of its effects on the global economy.  Yet, those fears and the current bond yields at least hint at a continuation of low rates, if not a drop in rates.

Disclaimer – if we could predict where mortgage rates will go, we would be on a tropical beach, not writing this blog.  Rates could go up or down. Mortgage rates are already CRAZY LOW and its probably time to refinance if you haven’t already!

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Mortgage Rates, QE, and Wonky Talk

Mortgage Rates Shot Up This Week

Mortgage rates shot up this week and many are wondering why and what’s next. Homestead Title is going wonky today and dabbling in the guessing game of mortgage rates.

Bonds and Mortgage Rates

Mortgage Rates tend to follow long term bonds and, specifically, the 10 year Treasury Bond market. As bond yields increase, mortgage rates go up. And, sure enough, bond yields rose this week. But, most economists believe there is a much stronger force at play that has kept interest rates low. It is called the Fed and its program of Quantitative Easing.

Quantitative Easing Explained

The Federal Reserve has ways of influencing the economy. Its primary tool is to lower the interest rate charged to banks for inter-bank lending. By lowering the cost of money they hope Banks will borrow more, lend more freely, and spur economic growth.

Over the past 4 years, the Fed lowered rates to nearly zero, yet banks still weren’t lending enough and the economy wasn’t growing fast enough. In fact, banks were borrowing this cheap money and using it to buy safe bonds that paid a small return. Unable to lower the cost of money, the Fed sought to influence the quantity of money (hence the term Quantitative Easing). They pumped cash into the economy by buying up the same bonds and safe investments that banks were buying. This lowered the yields on bonds and indirectly lowered mortgage rates.

And sure enough, people borrowed. This spring has seen a surge in the real estate market and low interest rates have surely played a role.

Why Did Rates Rise Suddenly This Week?

When the Fed talks, the markets listen. On May 22, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested that the Fed might slow down or stop Quantitative Easing sooner than expected. The markets and banks reacted strongly (some would say they overreacted) and mortgage rates spiked.

What Will Happen Next

We’re a Title Company, not fortune tellers. If we could accurately predict the economy, we’d be on a beach in the Caribbean. But we can report what other’s are saying. Many economists think this is still a volatile market and rates will drop back down. It is hard to imagine rates dropping back to the historic lows of the last year, but we never imagined that was possible in the first place. Rates are still well below 4%, which is a screaming deal by comparison to rates over the last 50 years.

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